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Can one predict daily gold prices by following the financial press?

Not really. The financial press simply tells you what HAS happened with daily gold prices. Financial journalists see if gold prices have gone up or down and try to draw an intelligent conclusion based on what they view as relevant data and events.

Here is a list of a number of headlines taken from the financial press, all over a period of just two weeks.

– Gold ends higher on inflation worriesHere is a list of a number of headlines taken from the financial press, all over a period of just two weeks.

– Gold ends higher on weak dollar

– Gold rises as weaker dollar stirs fund buying

– Gold ends up on dollar drop as trade gap widens

– Gold edges down as risk appetite returns

– Gold ends down as optimism prompts profit-taking

– Gold firms on weak US dollar, Chinese buying

– Gold drops on economic optimism, PGMs slip

– Gold ends lower as safe-haven demand fizzles

– Gold rises after US GDP data, outlook cautious

Can you tell why daily gold prices were going up or down? Are the changes in prices the result of the trade gap, fears of inflation, a weak dollar, low demand, Chinese buying habits…or perhaps something completely different?

Financial journalist will simply find what they consider to be the most likely culprit.

“Gold went up? Hmmm…probably due to that press conference about inflation worries.”

Whether their assumptions and conclusions are valid is anyone’s guess.

And remember, we’re talking about how the press reports on what has ALREADY happened. Not about what might or might not happen tomorrow.

To answer the question again: No, I wouldn’t rely on the financial press to predict daily gold prices.

Besides which, if your motivation is to own gold as a long-term asset, minor daily fluctuations in gold prices shouldn’t be worrying you too much.

Ignore the daily headlines and look for the longer-term trends.