Well, if anyone knew the answer to that question, they would be assured of a very successful year.
But, of course, we don’t know. We don’t even know what the price of gold will be tomorrow.
Gold prices are notoriously hard to predict because they are influenced by so many different factors.
And sometimes, even factors which have been historically accurate no longer seem to be as reliable today. For example, gold prices have historically moved in the opposite direction to the value of the US dollar. But recently the US dollar has been falling in value, without a corresponding and expected increase in the price of gold.
In other words, even the most tried and tested indicators sometimes fail to give us the results we expect.
However, there is another indicator that might at least give you a sense of where things are going. This isn’t a technical indicator. Far from it.
It’s about sentiment, about where people feel the price of gold is going.
Take a peek at these predictions, courtesy of a poll conducted by TheStreet.com
As you can see, from the 1,595 people who participated in the poll, the most popular prediction was in the $1,500-$1,800 range.
I pay attention to results like these, simply because one of the things that does influence gold prices is people’s expectations of where the price is going.
If enough people buy gold, because they think the price will go up, then the act of buying more gold will indeed push the price up. It’s like a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Buyer sentiment impacts all investments, and it certainly has an effect on the future price of gold.